Earning Returns in a 'Bear Market'

By Harry Niederau | August 13, 2008

The current 'bearish' market conditions pose challenges to the investment decisions of both private and institutional investors. Although it was observed in our February 2008 study that also in a bearish market substantial returns on investment can be realized, getting the entry and exit points right for investment or disinvestment decisions is by far more essential as compared to a 'bullish' market. In continuation of the analysis of long-term indicators of turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average along the past 40 years (see above link), we will endeavour to scrutinize in this study the power of more short- to medium-term predictions, especially those of turning pints. This analysis is carried out by employing so-called wavelet transforms to the Dow Jones data used in above mentioned study, but completed as of present date. A short project draft is available via the link above, while the results of the study are expected towards the end of the year.

As with all contributions in our Journal, constructive comments or hints are welcome.

Topics: macro-economics | | Comments | 0 Hits